Ivor Cummins aka the Fat Emperor – gives James the lowdown on why you can’t trust anything our governments tell us about Covid-19. If you want the facts on Coronavirus – how deadly is it? do lockdowns and masks work? how does it compare with previous pandemics? – you’ve come to the right place
We have experience of SARS in 2003 and MERS in 2012, while in the UK there are at least four known strains of coronavirus which cause the common cold.
Many individuals who’ve been infected by other coronaviruses have immunity to closely related ones such as the Covid-19 virus.
Multiple research groups in Europe and the US have shown that around 30 per cent of the population was likely already immune to Covid-19 before the virus arrived – something which Sage continues to ignore.
Prof. John Ioannidis, professor of epidemiology at Stanford University in California, have concluded that the mortality rate is closer to 0.2 per cent – 1 in 500 infected die.
Around 45,000 Covid deaths in the UK
Approximately 22.5million people have been infected – 33.5 per cent of our population – not Sage’s 7 per cent calculation.
Not every infected individual produces antibodies.
The human immune system has several lines of defence:
Innate immunity which is comprised of the body’s physical barriers to infection and protective secretions (the skin and its oils, the cough reflex, tears etc);
Inflammatory response (to localise and minimise infection and injury), and the production of non-specific cells (phagocytes) that target an invading virus/bacterium.
Antibodies that protect against a specific virus or bacterium (and confer immunity) and T-cells (a type of white blood cell) that are also specific.
T-cells that are crucial in our body’s response to respiratory viruses such as Covid-19.
World Health Organisation says 750million people have been infected by the virus as of October and almost none have been reinfected.
Mortality in 2020 so far ranks eighth out of the last 27 years.
The death rate at present is also normal for the time of year – the number of respiratory deaths is actually low for late October.
Not only is the virus less dangerous than we are being led to believe, with almost three quarters of the population at no risk of infection.
I am convinced this so-called second wave of rising infections and, sadly, deaths will fizzle out without overwhelming the NHS.
COVID-19 is not a dread disease that will kill everyone.
The initially high case fatality rate of COVID-19 was because the medical community didn’t know how to treat it.
The fatality rate of flu is 0.1% (1 in every 1,000 who are infected end up dying).
Ventilators are the wrong option if you do not have an obstructed airway disease.
Prod. Ioannidis: The infection fatality ratio of COVID-19 is 0.15%. This is pretty much the same as the flu.
We should just ask people to be careful but otherwise go about your daily life.
These things pass every year. This is the first ‘social media pandemic.’
The normal practice for intensive care beds in the NHS is to run them almost full. This is because a lot of intensive care bed assignment is planned.
ICU use at the height of the pandemic was has very low because the NHS was run as light as possible to cope with a second wave.
Respiratory viruses don’t do waves.
This is not opinion but is basic understanding among experts in the field. It is supposrted by the highest quality science. Sir Patrick Vallance knows this.
COVID-19 follows the Gompertz Curve.
You have immunity after your body has fought off a respiratory virus. If that was not the case, you’d be dead. Immunity probably lasts decades based on evidence from other viruses.
Gompertz Curve is identical in all heavily infection regions.
Something awefull happened in the middle of the year: PCR swab test.
It is not true that if you test more people you’ll save more lives. A certain percentage of the test will come up positive even if there’s no virus in you.
False positive rate wasn’t released.
Kate Barker wrote in a government document on June 3rd, 2020, to SAGE: test has an unknown false positive rate; based on similar tests it may be between 1%-2%. This is a big deal.
Based on 1%: for every 1,000 people you test, 10 will come back positive, even if they don’t have the virus. If prevalence is only 0.1% as reported by ONS, only 1 in 1,000 will be genuine. This means 9 in 10–in other words 90%–are false.
Pillar 2 testing would have caused of the most of the positives to be false.
1,700 people die normally every day in the UK. During the summer, only about 10 were dying per day of covid.
More testing, more false positives. We’ll never escape covid if we keep testing because most of the positives will be false. This is immunology 101. Sir Patrick Vallance would have known this.
Influenza is a high mutation-rate virus. Coronaviruses are relatively stable so once you’ve recovered, you are probably immune for decades.
COVID-19 kills 0.15%-0.2%, slightly more lethal than the average flu. Once it’s gone through the population, it won’t come back.
99.94% survive COVID-19 and will be resistant for a long time.
COVID-19 is 80% similar to SARS-COV-1.
People who were exposed to SARS have T-cell immunity 17 years later. Evidence for COVID-19 all point in direction.
Our bodies have many lines of defense, including innate immunity and T-cells. Antibodies are in the last line of defense.
Study shows around 30% prior immunity to SARS-COV-2. It was due to exposure to common-cold coronaviruses.
The claim made by Sir Patrick Vallance that more than 90% are susceptible is a lie.
Mass testing of the well populating is the worst problem as it generates false positives, fear and control.
If you’re immune, you can’t be infected or infectious. Herd immunity is already in play in London.
If SAGE is correct, London should be ‘ablaze’ with deaths.
Current testing methods are not forensically sound.
Tests detect common cold and dead virus.
SARS-COV-2 has never really been a public health emergency.
We do not need the vaccine to return to normal. Most people are not in danger from COVID-19. More people are in danger from car crashes and we accept that risk.
Best case scenario is that the vaccine is 50% effective. Natural immunity might be better.
The most vulnerable often don’t respond well to vaccines and die anyway.
SAGE is giving lethally wrong advice.
The reason the pandemic is not over is because SAGE says it’s not.
[The fight against Covid] ignores the devastating social and economic impact of Covid restrictions, and exaggerates the threat the disease poses.
Despite all the hysteria, this is not a modern plague.
In the week ending October 2, Covid accounted for just 3.2 per cent of all fatalities in British hospitals.
Even with the recent rise in infections, Covid mortality levels are drastically lower now than at the peak of the pandemic in the spring.
That toll may increase, but it is highly unlikely to reach the levels we saw in spring.
Covid-19 is a cruel disease that targets the old or those whose life expectancy is compromised by ill-health.
While every life is precious, the average age of patients who die with Covid-19 is 82.4.
Since August, just one otherwise healthy person under 30 has died with the disease, while in the same period only 97 victims have been younger than 60.
One study in June by the Office for National Statistics found 91 per cent of people who died with Covid in England and Wales between March and June had at least one pre-existing condition.
Contrary to the depressing propaganda, six in every seven people who are infected over the age of 90 actually survive.
[T]here is little convincing scientific evidence to support the belief that these venues are significant arenas of transmission.
Much of the North and the Midlands has been living with Covid restrictions for months, yet it has not stemmed the rise in positive cases.
There is not a single documented case of any student this autumn yet dying from Covid.
In 40 years, scientists have never found an HIV/AIDS vaccine, nor has one been discovered for the SARS virus in 18 years.
A vaccine will probably be more like an annual flu jab — which will give some protection but not stop you contracting the disease — rather than a measles vaccine, which provides a lifetime’s protection.
Edinburgh University argued that heavy-handed use of lockdowns and social distancing could cost between 149,000 and 178,000 lives over the course of the pandemic — far more than have died from Covid.
The Government likely borrowing more than £350 billion this year — will have be paid by generations to come.
Sweden never went in to full lockdown. Instead, the country imposed a partial lockdown that was almost entirely voluntary.
The only forcible restriction imposed by the government from the start was a requirement that people not gather in groups of more than 50 at a time.
People followed the voluntary restrictions pretty well at the beginning, but that they have become increasingly lax as time has gone on.
After an initial peak that lasted for a month or so, from March to April, visits to the Emergency Room due to covid had been declining continuously, and deaths in Sweden had dropped from over 100 a day at the peak in April, to around five per day in August.
Dr. Rushworth hasn’t seen a single covid patient in the Emergency Room in over two and a half months.
COVID has killed under 6,000 people.
On average, one to two people per day are dying of covid in Sweden at present, and that number continues to drop.
In the whole of Stockholm, a county with 2,4 million inhabitants, there are currently only 28 people being treated for covid in all the hospitals combined.
Sweden seemed to be developing herd immunity, in spite of the fact that only a minority had antibodies, was due to T-cells.
Immunity may be long lasting, and probably explains why there have only been a handful of reported cases of re-infection with covid, even though the virus has spent the last nine months bouncing around the planet infecting many millions of people.
Almost all cases of reinfection have been completely asymptomatic.
People develop a functioning immunity after the first infection, which allows them to fight off the second infection without ever developing any symptoms.
England and Italy have mortality curves that are very similar to Sweden’s.
Lockdown only makes sense if you are willing to stay in lockdown until there is an effective vaccine.
As coronavirus cases rise in pretty much all other European countries, leading to fears of a second wave including in the UK, they have been sinking all summer in Sweden. On a per capita basis, they are now 90 per cent below their peak in late June and under Norway’s and Denmark’s for the first time in five months. Tegnell had told me the first time we spoke in the spring that it would be in the autumn when it became more apparent how successful each country had been.
The choice we face is stark. One option is to maintain a general lockdown for an unknown amount of time until herd immunity is reached through a future vaccine or until there is a safe and effective treatment. This must be weighed against the detrimental effects that lockdowns have on other health outcomes. The second option is to minimise the number of deaths until herd immunity is achieved through natural infection. Most places are neither preparing for the former nor considering the latter.
The question is not whether to aim for herd immunity as a strategy, because we will all eventually get there. The question is how to minimise casualties until we get there. Since Covid-19 mortality varies greatly by age, this can only be accomplished through age-specific countermeasures. We need to shield older people and other high-risk groups until they are protected by herd immunity.
Among the individuals exposed to Covid-19, people aged in their 70s have roughly twice the mortality of those in their 60s, 10 times the mortality of those in their 50s, 40 times that of those in their 40s, 100 times that of those in their 30s, and 300 times that of those in their 20s. The over-70s have a mortality that is more than 3,000 times higher than children have. For young people, the risk of death is so low that any reduced levels of mortality during the lockdown might not be due to fewer Covid-19 deaths, but due to fewer traffic accidents.
The Imperial College study published this morning claiming that 3.4 million people ( six per cent of the UK population) have antibodies indicating that they have been exposed to Covid-19 provides no great revelation. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) has already published similar figures suggesting that 6.5 per cent of the population has been infected. Nevertheless, it is yet more confirmation of how irrelevant are the official statistics for Covid 19 cases – and what a nonsense it is to rely on them for policymaking.
According to the Government’s Covid “dashboard”, updated at 4pm on Wednesday, 313,798 people in Britain have had the disease. This is less than one tenth of the number suggested by the Imperial study. In other words, for all Matt Hancock’s efforts to ramp up testing, the vast majority of cases have not been detected.
Official data from NHS England points to a huge drop in the number of coronavirus patients being treated in hospitals today compared to mid-April, during the height of the pandemic.
Dr Daniels: Britain is “almost reaching herd immunity”.
Increase in hospital admissions nor a second wave to hit the UK.
“I think that’s highly unlikely because the pubs have been open for over a month, people have been socially interacting heavily during that time, and the natural history of this disease is that if you contract the virus and you’re going to end up in hospital, you’re pretty much in hospital within 15 days of contracting it.”
Humans have never been particularly good at eradicating entire viruses, and COVID-19 might not be any different.
More than 19 million people have tested positive for the coronavirus globally, and at least 722,000 have died. In the U.S., nearly 5 million people have tested positive and more than 160,000 have died. While scientists are racing to find a cure for the virus, there’s a chance COVID-19 will never fully go away — with or without a vaccine.
Vineet Menachery, a coronavirus researcher at the University of Texas Medical Branch, told NPR’s Weekend Edition that one of the more likely scenarios is that the spread of COVID-19 will eventually be slowed as a result of herd immunity. He said that he’d be surprised “if we’re still wearing masks and 6-feet distancing in two or three years” and that in time, the virus could become no more serious than the common cold.
The first thing to remember is that we haven’t been successful at eradicating many viruses at all. Really the lone exception is smallpox, but many of these viruses exist not only in the human population but in animal populations. So coronaviruses may be removed from the human population, like SARS coronavirus in 2002, but we know that those viruses or viruses that are similar to it still exist in nature and at any time they may gain the tools to reemerge in humans again.
Article based on experience working as a doctor in the emergency room of one of the big hospitals in Stockholm, Sweden, and of living as a citizen in Sweden.
Unlike other countries, Sweden never went in to complete lockdown. Non-essential businesses have remained open, people have continues to go to cafés and restaurants, children have remained in school, and very few people have bothered with face masks in public.
COVID hit Stockholm like a storm in mid-March. One day I was seeing people with appendicitis and kidney stones, the usual things you see in the emergency room. The next day all those patients were gone and the only thing coming in to the hospital was COVID. Practically everyone who was tested had COVID, regardless of what the presenting symptom was. People came in with a nose bleed and they had COVID. They came in with stomach pain and they had COVID.
Then, after a few months, all the COVID patients disappeared.
At the peak three months back, a hundred people were dying a day of COVID in Sweden, a country with a population of ten million. We are now down to around five people dying per day in the whole country, and that number continues to drop. Since people generally die around three weeks after infection, that means virtually no-one is getting infected any more.
The risk of dying is at the very most 1 in 200 if you actually do get infected.
In total COVID has killed under 6,000 people in a country of ten million.
Sweden has an annual death rate of around 100,000 people. Considering that 70% of those who have died of COVID are over 80 years old, quite a few of those 6,000 would have died this year anyway.
COVID will never even come close to major pandemic numbers like 1918 flu.
If herd immunity hasn’t developed, where are all the sick people? Why has the rate of infection dropped so precipitously?
The reason we test for antibodies is because it is easy and cheap. Antibodies are in fact not the body’s main defence against virus infections. T-cells are. But T-cells are harder to measure than antibodies, so we don’t really do it clinically.
Sweden ripped the metaphorical band-aid off quickly and got the epidemic over and done with in a short amount of time, while the rest of the world has chosen to try to peel the band-aid off slowly.
I am willing to bet that the countries that have shut down completely will see rates spike when they open up. If that is the case, then there won’t have been any point in shutting down in the first place, because all those countries are going to end up with the same number of dead at the end of the day anyway. Shutting down completely in order to decrease the total number of deaths only makes sense if you are willing to stay shut down until a vaccine is available. That could take years.
COVID has at present killed less than 6000 in Sweden. It is very unlikely that the number of dead will go above 7,000. An average influenza year in Sweden, 700 people die of influenza. Does that mean COVID is ten times worse than influenza? No, because influenza has been around for centuries while COVID is completely new.
So it is quite possible, in fact likely, that the case fatality rate for COVID is the same as for influenza, or only slightly higher, and the entire difference we have seen is due to the complete lack of any immunity in the population at the start of this pandemic.
But with no sign of a second summer wave nor an autumn eruption reminiscent of 1918, the commentariat has amended the definition. Suddenly, a “second wave” meant Covid’s seasonal return, in winter, a year on. Widespread adoption of a new phrase in the Covid lexicology – “winter wave” – has academically formalised the idea.
But instead of looking us square in the eye, the Tories have chosen Big Brother’s panopticon; No 10’s new Joint Biosecurity Centre, which will drive “whack-a-mole” local lockdowns, is slickness posing as strategy – and, as it happens, reporting into track-and-trace app failure Dido Harding. When the public twigs that the infection is unlikely to be controlled in this way, the sheer panic could send us back into national lockdown. Three scenarios might help avoid the latter: a vaccine comes along; the Government gets its act together with a plan to protect the vulnerable; or we put in place safety valves against mass hysteria.
Imperial College’s research needs to be particularly scrutinised, as its international influence grows. Dr Seth Flaxman – the first author in the paper that notoriously claimed lockdowns may have prevented over 3 million deaths in Europe – this week won fresh funding to model the pandemic across several countries.
Revelations that disrupt the narrative also need to find a stronger voice: within 24 hours, the scandal of PHE’s inflated daily death figures was running out of mileage. This week’s London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine modelling on the impact of the pandemic on cancer deaths never gathered steam. So too a paper by Oxford’s Prof Sunetra Gupta, which elegantly combined those uneasy epidemiological bedfellows – theory and evidence – to find some parts of the UK may already have reached herd immunity.
“Intensive care units are getting empty, the wards are getting empty, we are really seeing a decrease — and that despite that people are really loosening up. The beaches are crowded, social distancing is not kept very well … but still the numbers are really decreasing. That means that something else is happening – we are actually getting closer to herd immunity. I can’t really see another reason.”
“I can’t say if the Swedish approach was right or wrong – I think we can say that in one or two years when we are looking back. You have to look at the mortality over the whole period.”
“I don’t think that we have more new cases, I think we are just detecting more cases”
“We found that if you have a mild case you can be negative for antibodies afterwards … in those almost all of them had strong T-cell activity. This study says that there are cases that you can have a strong T-cell response even though you have not had antibodies, meaning that you have encountered the virus and built up immunity.”
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