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News

Health experts urge caution on giving Covid vaccines to UK children – The Guardian

Launching a programme of Covid-19 immunisations for children should be considered only in special circumstances, leading health experts have warned.

They say UK medical authorities, who are currently studying how vaccines for adolescents might be administered, should move with great care over the implementation of such a programme.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/29/health-experts-urge-caution-on-giving-covid-vaccines-to-uk-children

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Videos

Lockdown legacy facing future generations – Dr Rob Verkerk, Pandemic Podcast

Rob Verkerk, Founder, Executive and Scientific Director of the Alliance for Natural Health International, a scientist who has for 30 years been exploring positive ways to span the gulfs between science and the law, between academia and industry, and between governments and their people.

Backup mirror:

Mirrored on odysee.com

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Publications

Evidence of early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in France: findings from the population-based “CONSTANCES” cohort – European Journal of Epidemiology

Using serum samples routinely collected in 9144 adults from a French general population-based cohort, we identified 353 participants with a positive anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG test, among whom 13 were sampled between November 2019 and January 2020 and were confirmed by neutralizing antibodies testing. Investigations in 11 of these participants revealed experience of symptoms possibly related to a SARS-CoV-2 infection or situations at risk of potential SARS-CoV-2 exposure. This suggests early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00716-2

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Publications

COVID-19 in children and the role of school settings in transmission – first update – ECDC

The return to school of children around mid-August 2020 coincided with a general relaxation of other NPI measures in many countries and does not appear to have been a driving force in the upsurge in cases observed in many EU Member States from October 2020.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/children-and-school-settings-covid-19-transmission

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Opinion Videos

Ivor Cummins on The James Delingpole Channel

Ivor Cummins aka the Fat Emperor – gives James the lowdown on why you can’t trust anything our governments tell us about Covid-19. If you want the facts on Coronavirus – how deadly is it? do lockdowns and masks work? how does it compare with previous pandemics? – you’ve come to the right place

Please support the Delingpod:

Mirror archives are available below if this video is removed from YouTube.

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Publications

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19: A Tale of Three Models – medRxiv

Results While model 1 found that lockdown was the most effective measure in the original 11 countries, model 2 showed that lockdown had little or no benefit as it was typically introduced at a point when the time-varying reproductive number was already very low. Model 3 found that the simple banning of public events was beneficial, while lockdown had no consistent impact. Based on Bayesian metrics, model 2 was better supported by the data than either model 1 or model 3 for both time horizons.

Conclusions Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. Claimed benefits of lockdown appear grossly exaggerated.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v3

Categories
Opinion

PCR-based COVID testing has failed and is not a proper basis to lockdown the nation, let alone decide on tiers for restrictions – Mike Yeadon, Lockdown Sceptics

Briefing paper for MPs authored by:

  • Clare Craig BM BCh FRCPath
  • Jonathan Engler MBChB LLB
  • Mike Yeadon BSc Hons (Biochem-tox) PhD (Pharmacol)
  • Christian McNeill LL.B and Dip LP

Stop mass-testing using PCR in the UK and replace with Lateral Flow Tests where required. If we are correct, this single measure alone will cause a sudden drop in “cases” (as seen in Liverpool) and allow the UK to return to normal life within weeks.

Other recommendations as detailed later in this document. It should be noted that legal cases and technical challenges to PC

https://lockdownsceptics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/MP-briefing-26-Nov-2020.pdf

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News

I’m almost starting to think this whole pandemic really is a conspiracy – The Telegraph

Exact approximations vary but the survival rate for Covid-19 is thought to be somewhere above 99 per cent, and maybe as high as 99.8 per cent.

…The average age of someone who dies from coronavirus is 82.4, which, by the way, is nearly identical to the average life expectancy in Britain (81.1).

…In the first week of October, there were 91,013 cases of coronavirus reported in England and Wales, and 343 Covid-related deaths. That same week a total of 9,954 people died from various causes. Of those, just 4.4 per cent of the death certificates mentioned Covid-19.

https://web.archive.org/web/20201021001219/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/comment/almost-starting-think-whole-pandemic-really-conspiracy/

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News

Anders Tegnell and the Swedish Covid experiment – The Financial Times

As coronavirus cases rise in pretty much all other European countries, leading to fears of a second wave including in the UK, they have been sinking all summer in Sweden. On a per capita basis, they are now 90 per cent below their peak in late June and under Norway’s and Denmark’s for the first time in five months. Tegnell had told me the first time we spoke in the spring that it would be in the autumn when it became more apparent how successful each country had been.

https://www.ft.com/content/5cc92d45-fbdb-43b7-9c66-26501693a371

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News

Europe’s ‘second wave’ has fizzled out – The Spectator

Has the Covid ‘second wave’ already run out of steam? On 9 July, just when Britain was reopening the hospitality sector and other businesses, the World Health Organisation announced that the pandemic was ‘accelerating’. Much of the coverage in Britain also implies that we are possibly in the early stages of a second wave. But that talk is lagging behind the data. Globally, the number of new recorded cases peaked on 31 July at 291,691 and has shown a slight downward trend ever since. In terms of deaths, they peaked at 8,502 on 17 April and have also been on a slight declining trend ever since. On the worst day in the past week – 2 September – 6,312 deaths were recorded. Most of the worst-affected countries are now showing downward trends in both daily cases and deaths, including the US, Brazil, Russia, Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Mexico, Chile and Iran. Among the top dozen worst-affected countries, only India is now showing an upwards trend in deaths. Spain and Argentina are showing slight upwards trends in new cases, but not deaths. All these figures, of course, have to be read in conjunction with a huge increase in testing – so a slight increase in new cases does not necessarily imply that the disease is in fact spreading.

As for Europe’s ‘second wave’, that, too, has fizzled out – with new cases now declining in Germany, and Sweden, and remaining flat in Italy, Ireland and Belgium. There is no obvious trend either way in Poland, Denmark or Portugal. The country with the clearest rising trend is Croatia. There was, until last week, a sharply-rising trend in Greece, although this has flattened off in recent days. You can follow country by country data on new infections and deaths here.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/europe-s-second-wave-has-fizzled-out

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News

Europe is at last waking up to its lockdown folly – The Telegraph

Did you hear it? Beyond the second wave sirens and the schools debate, the sound of the penny dropping on the global stage. In recent days, world leaders have hinted at an extraordinary admission: lockdowns are a disaster, and we can’t afford to repeat the mistake

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/27/europe-last-waking-lockdown-folly/

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News

No, Europe isn’t being engulfed by a deadly second wave – The Telegraph

An uptick in cases hasn’t been matched by an increase in deaths. It’s about time we had a more intelligent conversation about risk

Hard luck to those who switched their holidays to Greece when Spain was put back on the quarantine list. The Greek government has just officially declared a “second wave”. Once holidaymakers have explored the Aegean they face getting to know a lot more about the insides of their own homes upon their return, as Greece is now a favourite to be added to the ever-growing list of countries whose air bridges with Britain have collapsed.

But how real is this “second wave” apparently sweeping Europe? Look at the chart of new recorded infections in Greece and, sure enough, you can call it a second wave. Recorded cases began to inch upwards from mid-June onwards. The figure for Sunday – 202 – was markedly higher than the peak in new recorded infections in Greece’s first wave, which reached 156 on April 21. But then look at the chart for Greece’s Covid deaths and there is not the slightest trace of a second wave.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/11/no-europe-isnt-engulfed-deadly-second-wave/

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News

Sweden’s Economy, After Not Having Lockdown, in Much Better Shape Than Rest of Europe – Newsweek

  • Sweden’s GDP fell 8.6 in Q2 2020, the country’s worst quarterly decline in modern history.
  • The Scandanavian nation markedly outperformed the rest of Europe. Its GDP drop in the second quarter was lower than the 12.1 average experienced in the Eurozone, as well as the 11.9 average across the whole of the EU.
  • Sweden outperformed several European countries, including Spain (18.5 percent fall), France (13.6 percent), Italy (12.4 percent) and Germany (10.1 percent).

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-sweden-economy-gross-domestic-product-eurozone-better-europe-1523359

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News

Sweden COVID-19 Death Rate Lower Than Spain, Italy and U.K., Despite Never Having Lockdown – Newsweek

While novel coronavirus cases have spiked across several parts of Europe, including Spain, France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, Sweden—where a countrywide lockdown was never issued—continues to report a downward trend in new cases and new deaths.

COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 people in Sweden vs. Europe

Source: Johns Hopkins University (as of August 2)

  • Sweden: 56.40
  • Belgium: 86.19
  • U.K.: 69.60
  • Spain: 60.88
  • Italy: 58.16

COVID-19 case-fatality ratio of Sweden vs. Europe

Source: Johns Hopkins University (as of August 2)

  • Sweden: 7.1 percent
  • U.K.: 15.1 percent
  • Belgium: 14.2 percent
  • Italy: 14.2 percent
  • France: 13.4 percent
  • The Netherlands: 11.2 percent
  • Spain: 9.9 percent

New COVID-19 cases in Sweden vs. Europe in past 14 days

Source: World Health Organization (as of August 2)

  • Sweden: Down 46 percent
  • The Netherlands: Up 205 percent
  • Belgium: Up 150 percent
  • Spain: Up 113 percent
  • France: Up 72 percent
  • Germany: Up 59 percent
  • Finland: Up 160 percent
  • Denmark: Up 81 percent
  • Norway: Up 61 percent
  • U.K.: Up three percent

https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-covid-19-death-rate-lower-spain-italy-uk-despite-never-having-lockdown-1522306

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Publications

COVID-19 death rate is higher in European countries with a low flu intensity – Dr. Chris Hope, University of Cambridge

The death rate from COVID-19 (coronavirus) in Europe appears to be linked to low-intensity flu seasons in the past two years as the same people are vulnerable, says a working paper by Dr Chris Hope, Emeritus Reader in Policy Modelling at Cambridge Judge Business School.

https://insight.jbs.cam.ac.uk/2020/flu-and-coronavirus/

Categories
Opinion

Why social distancing is worse than useless – The Conservative Woman

If social distancing made things better, we would expect a positive correlation on both of these graphs – in other words, earlier social distancing would lead to both earlier flattening of the curve and lower total deaths, meaning these points would all sit close to a diagonal line sloping up from left to right. Instead what we see is very little correlation at all, and what there is is negative. So early social distancing is either doing nothing or making things worse. This is likely because the virus spreads mainly in hospitals, care homes and private homes rather than in the community, so social distancing of the wider population beyond a basic minimum (washing hands, self-isolating when ill, not getting too close, and so on) has little impact. 

Categories
News

UK suffers second-highest death rate from coronavirus – The Financial Times

The absolute number of excess deaths in the UK is the highest in Europe, and second only to the US in global terms, according to data collected by the Financial Times.

Along with the US and Peru, the UK is still registering a large number of excess deaths, although the toll has dropped sharply since the 12,000 weekly peak in mid-April.

https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0

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News

Europe’s Bread Lines Get New Faces in Warning of Crisis to Come – Bloomberg

Food banks see higher demand from professionals, self-employed

 Higher income inequality could lead to voter backlash, unrest

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-22/europe-s-bread-lines-get-new-faces-in-warning-of-crisis-to-come

Categories
Opinion

Europe’s COVID19 Excess Deaths plateau at 15% more than 17/18 Flu – Professor Michael Levitt

Professor Michael Levitt, Stanford Prof. of Biophysics, Cambridge PhD and DSc, 2013 Chemistry Nobel Laureate (complex systems), says that Europe’s COVID19 Excess Deaths plateau at 153,006, 15% more than 17/18 Flu with same age range counts.

Categories
Publications

Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic – medRxiv

This phenomenological study assesses the impacts of full lockdown strategies applied in Italy, France, Spain and United Kingdom, on the slowdown of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends. Extrapolating pre-lockdown growth rate trends, we provide estimates of the death toll in the absence of any lockdown policies, and show that these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic.

As a concluding remark, it should be pointed out that, since the full lockdown strategies are shown to have no impact on the epidemic’s slowdown, one should consider their potentially high inherent death toll as a net loss of human lives.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1