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Videos

German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than we thought – Professor Hendrik Streeck, UnHerd

Freddie Sayers talks to Professor Hendrik Streeck about why he thinks lockdown measures were initiated too quickly, and how his findings show a Covid-19 fatality rate of 0.24-0.36%. The deadliness of Covid-19, measured by the “Infected Fatality Rate” or what percentage of infected people end up dying, has become an issue of global significance.

  • COVID-19 is less deadly than initially thought
  • Fatality rate between 0.24-0.36%
  • Transmission between families seems low
  • Enclosed spaces with large gatherings seems to spread the virus
  • Waiting for a vaccine seems unrealistic
  • We will not be able to eradicate COVID-19 without a vaccine but there has not been any successful vaccine against any coronovirus
  • COVID-19 will be like any coronavirus
  • We may be able to manage the virus with basic hygiene
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News

Herd immunity may only need 10-20 per cent of people to be infected – The Spectator

 A team led by Gabriela Gomes of the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine argues that it is wrong to assume that herd immunity will only be achieved when 60 per cent of people have been infected. It is more likely, they argue, that the true figure lies between 10 and 20 per cent. The 60 per cent figure, they say, is based on the idea that we are all equally likely to contract the virus. In reality, there is a wide variation in an individual’s susceptibility to becoming infected. People who are frail or who have greater exposure to the virus – perhaps because they are working in an intensive care unit – are in practice far more likely to contract the disease. As the epidemic progresses the pool of easily-infected individuals dries up and the virus has to search out new victims who are less-easily infected.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate

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Videos

There never was a surge but we’re in danger of losing our capacity to deal with the second wave because we panicked – Tony Heller

Tony Heller compares COVID-19 with other pandemics and explains why the lockdown may create an even more devastating second wave.

Medical professionals say there never was a surge, hospital activity is at a low and we’re in danger of losing our capacity to deal with the second wave because we panicked.

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News

Why lockdowns are the wrong policy – Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke, UnHerd

  • UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
  • The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
  • This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
  • The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
  • The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
  • The paper was very much too pessimistic
  • Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
  • The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
  • The results will eventually be similar for all countries
  • Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
  • The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
  • At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

Summary from 21st Century Wire.

21st Century Wire
Categories
Publications

Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period – Sicence Magazine

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793

Categories
News Videos

Perspectives on the Pandemic | Dr. David L. Katz | Episode 3

  • 00:58-How to minimize the risk of COVID-19
  • 03:52-Comparing the responses to a global pandemic
  • 08:53-Who is most at risk
  • 13:44-Is our global response warranted?
  • 17:17-Comparing COVID-19 to the flu
  • 20:55-Is the risk really that high?
  • 23:53-What is the fatality rate versus other common risk factors?
  • 25:2900:58-How to minimize the risk of COVID-19
  • 03:52-Comparing the responses to a global pandemic
  • 08:53-Who is most at risk
  • 13:44-Is our global response warranted?
  • 17:17-Comparing COVID-19 to the flu
  • 20:55-Is the risk really that high?
  • 23:53-What is the fatality rate versus other common risk factors? 25:29-The risk of labeling COVID-19 as a ?pandemic?
  • 26:14-Are the COVID-19 tests reliable?
  • 28:58-Should we be concerned about herd immunity?
  • 30:16-On the chances of getting a vaccine
  • 31:47-The return of ?measles parties??
  • 34:30-Breaking down the pros and cons of herd immunity
  • 37:25-Is lockdown making the problem worse?
  • 40:01-How to really hashtag Flatten the Curve
  • 45:45-Can we really trace the exposure for every person?
  • 48:06-Is authoritarianism growing in the name of public health? 50:37-Who can we trust when this pandemic is over?
  • 54:54-Industries? roles in the pandemic
Categories
Publications

Significant levels of herd immunity in the UK – Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford – medRxiv

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042291v1

Categories
News

Oxford study: Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population – The Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

Categories
News

Oxford University: COVID-19 may have been circulating in the UK since Jan 2020 and much of the population may already be immune – Yahoo News

https://news.yahoo.com/oxford-study-suggests-millions-people-221100162.html