Tag: Statistics

Official statistics for COVID-19 are publicly available and anyone can download the data for analysis. All the numbers so far show that the virus is far from being a ‘once in a century’ plague.

Browse the articles related to this topic below.

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Videos

Communication and public engagement – Marc Van Ranst, Belgian Flu Commissioner

Lecture by Marc Van Ranst, Belgian Flu Commissioner, at the ESWI/Chatham House Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Stakeholders Conference on 22 January 2019.

Judging from the content of the lecture, this could be alternatively titled, One voice, one message: How to work with the media to mislead the public.

In the audience is Jonathan Van-Tam, Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England.

To guard against censorship, this video has been mirrored on Odysee and Bitchute. Please scroll down for embedded videos.

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News

Ineffective flu vaccine added to 50,000 extra deaths last winter, ONS says – The Independent (2018)

It was the worst winter on record for more than 40 years, with the 1975-76 season being the last time deaths climbed so high above the expected levels.

The NHS was rocked by a record winter crisis in early 2018, with a massive rise in flu cases and sub-zero temperatures triggered by the Beast from the East storm, which added further to death rates.

“The number of excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2017 to 2018 was the highest recorded since the winter of 1975 to 1976,” said Nick Stripe, from the ONS Health Analysis and Life Events team.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-vaccine-deaths-nhs-ineffective-crisis-bad-weather-illness-2017-a8660496.html

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News

Why lockdowns are the wrong policy – Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke, UnHerd

  • UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
  • The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
  • This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
  • The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
  • The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
  • The paper was very much too pessimistic
  • Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
  • The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
  • The results will eventually be similar for all countries
  • Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
  • The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
  • At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

Summary from 21st Century Wire.

21st Century Wire
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Publications

Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates between 0.1% and 0.36% – CEBM

Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates
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Publications Videos

COVID-19 lethality in 0.12% to 0.2% which is in the range of severe influenza – medRxiv

Stanford University study founds antibodies in 50 to 85 times more people than previously thought in Santa Clara County, California. Covid-19 lethality of 0.12% to 0.2% which is in the range of severe influenza. 

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News

2,500 extra non-Covid deaths in a week! Collateral damage from the lockdown? – InProportion2

InProportion2 analyses the latest figures from Office for National Statistics, week ending 3 April 2020.

http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/collateral_judgement.html

Source: Sir David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, Cambridge University
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News Opinion

Coronavirus Lockdown and What You Are Not Being Told – Off-Guardian

The knee jerk reaction, assuming any questioning of the lockdown demonstrates a cavalier, uncaring disregard is puerile. Grown adults shouldn’t simply believe everything they are told like mindless idiots. Critical thinking and asking questions is never “bad” under any circumstances whatsoever.

Coronavirus Lockdown and What You Are Not Being Told – Part 1
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News

Winter deaths ‘highest since 1999’ – BBC (2015)

There were an estimated 43,900 excess deaths in England and Wales last winter, the highest number since 1999, figures show.

The report suggests most of the deaths involved people over 75.

The flu virus was a major cause of the rise, along with an influenza vaccine that was less effective than those of previous years, experts said.

The figures are published by the Office for National Statistics and show there were more deaths in women than men.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-34919149

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News

Killer flu outbreak is to blame for 64,000 deaths – The Daily Mail (2018)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-5440785/Killer-flu-outbreak-blame-42-spike-deaths.html

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News

What Share of the World Population Is Already on COVID-19 Lockdown? – Statista

https://www.statista.com/chart/21240/enforced-covid-19-lockdowns-by-people-affected-per-country/

Infographic: What Share of the World Population Is Already on COVID-19 Lockdown? | Statista You will find more infographics at Statista
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News Opinion

What are we to make of the latest figures on deaths, Covid-19 or otherwise? – Peter Hitchens, The Mail on Sunday

https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2020/04/an-attempt-to-gather-some-facts-on-the-present-stateof-the-covid-19-crisis-warning-no-conclusion.html

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News

Where is the vigorous debate about our response to Covid? – Dr John Lee, The Spectator

“Barely a day goes by without a politician saying that they will be ‘led by the science’. But what we are seeing with Covid-19 is not ‘science’ in action.”

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/to-understand-covid-we-need-evidence-scepticism-and-vigorous-debate

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Publications

RAPID RISK ASSESSMENT Outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) – European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control

About 80% of patients have mild to moderate disease (including non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases), 13.8% have severe disease and 6.1% are critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). Individuals at highest risk for severe disease and death are people aged over 60 years of age and those with underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and cancer. Disease in children appears to be relatively rare and mild. About 2.4% of the total reported cases were individuals under 19 years of age. A very small proportion of those aged under 19 years have developed severe (2.5%) or critical disease (0.2%).

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-outbreak-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-increase-transmission-globally-COVID-19.pdf

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Publications

Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period – Sicence Magazine

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793

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Opinion Publications

Excess deaths: government commissions review – BMJ

[Nicola Oliver ] tells us that 15,969 people died of flu (in England) last year, although only 320 died in hospital, and 15,649 were apparently left to die without due medical attention at home. What she fails to note is that the 15,969 deaths were not recorded deaths but a projection derived from the Flumomo algorithm [2] for ‘flu attributable deaths’ based on all cause mortality [3], so it does not really get us anywhere (except that it is just kind of thing I am complaining about!)

https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rapid-responses

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Publications

Characteristics of COVID-19 patients dying in Italy Report based on available data on March 20th, 2020 – Professor Walter Ricciardi, ISS

The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus […] On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf

Commentary from Off-Guardian:

Italian death toll figures could have been artificially inflated by up to 88%. If true, this would mean the total number of Italians who have actually died of Covid19 could be as low as ~700. Which would bring Italy, currently a statistical outlier in terms of Covid19 fatalities, well in line with the rest of the world.

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News Videos

The Ridiculous CDC Guidlines – Dr Scott Jensen

Dr. Scott Jensen mentions the financial incentive to mark a patient with COVID-19.

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News

British epidemiologist: why are we locking down if China results are representative?

Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate:

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

British epidemiologist Tom Jefferson tells the BMJ, “The sample [evidence from China] is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?”

Tom Jefferson, is an epidemiologist at the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) Group and writes for thebmjopinion.

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News Publications

UCL: closing schools does not help control COVID-19 epidemic

School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30095-X/fulltext

Summary from BBC News:

  • While school closures help during influenza outbreaks, the same may not apply to coronavirus
  • Data from the Sars outbreak (in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore) suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic
  • Recent modelling studies of Covid-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2%-4% of deaths, many fewer than other social distancing interventions
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News Publications

COVID-19 Models Misrepresent Reality

According to Ned Nikolov, Ph.D. a physical scientist in Colorado, USA, the COVID-19 models misrepresent reality.

Comparing #COVID19 Projections (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections) with reported data by Covid Tracking (https://covidtracking.com/data/) for Apr 5:

  • Overestimation of hospitalizations: 8 times
  • Overestimation of of ICU beds needed: 6.4 times
  • Overestimation of ventilators needed: 40.5 times

These are the types of “projections” that drive the #COVID19 hysteria. The level of exaggeration by these so-called models is staggering. This is also what JUNK science looks like.
Dr. Fauci’s recommendations for lockdown are based on such faulty models. It’s truly a disgrace!

Ned Nikolov: verestimation of hospitalizations