Andrew Mather, a mathematician and financier based in the UK, offers a series of videos analysing the COVID-19 data released by various governmental and health bodies.
In this video, he presents how the government had access to data that the case-count growth rate was decelerating long before the UK lockdown.
His Primer on Curve Analysis may also be useful.
Why the UK lockdown hasn’t worked
“The mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 is not significantly different from that for common coronaviruses identified at the study hospital in France”.
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Nate Silver, an American statistician, tells us why coronavirus case counts are meaningless.
*Unless you know something about testing. And even then, it gets complicated.
“The numbers are almost meaningless,” says Steve Goodman, a professor of epidemiology at Stanford University. There’s a huge reservoir of people who have mild cases, and would not likely seek testing, he says. The rate of increase in positive results reflect a mixed-up combination of increased testing rates and spread of the virus.
EuroMOMO is an agency that monitors deaths across Europe. The chart below compares death levels in week 2 of 2017 with week 14 of 2020. The darker blue means more deaths.