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Publications

An Outbreak of Common Colds at an Antarctic Base after Seventeen Weeks of Complete Isolation – JSTOR (1973)

17-week perfect Antarctic quarantine and someone still contracted a coronavirus.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/3862013?seq=1

Commentary by Professor Michael Levitt:

Categories
Opinion

Stockholm data shows virus burns out when it has infected 15-20% of the population

@gummibear737, a Twitter use who has been analysing COVID-19 data, has published a chart that confirms a hypothesis by Dr Michael Levitt:

Stockholm is the best population to test Covid theory whereby it was hit hard early and did not have lockdowns. Nobel Prize winner Dr Michael Levitt postulated that the virus burns out when it has infected 15-20% of the population. According to this, he’s right.

So what does this mean? Lockdowns were a waste of time and resources. Minimizing deaths just delays the inevitable. Those countries which were not hit are most likely to see continued spikes and outbreaks. Maybe less during the summer but a second wave later this year.

Categories
Videos

Ep78 Stanford Professor and Nobel Prize Winner Explains this Viral Lockdown – Professor Michael Levitt, The Fat Emperor Podcast

Podcast highlights

  • There were many signs that were really available by the end of February indicating this is a virus that has ‘weak legs.’
  • The data was all available by the end of February [2020] and anyone who can use Excel could analyse it.
  • “The best statistical test is the eyeball test.” And if you chart things in Excel, you can very quickly make an instinctive judgement.
  • No country succeeded in protecting the elderly and nursing homes–it’s hard thing to do.
  • We had a soft flu season. The people who would have been susceptible to a generic flu were hit by a virus that came late and swept through rapidly. This could explain the high COVID-19 death numbers among the vulnerable.
  • Many analysts agree that the lockdown did nothing to affect the peak of infections and deaths.
  • None of the pro-lockdown people seemed to analyse the data and used the data to support lockdown.
  • Many pro-lockdown scientific colleagues are academics receiving salaries; their lives would not be negatively affected by the lockdown. Scientists love nothing more than staying at home to work.
  • What really matters is the years lost rather than the number of dead. Life is risky and when you’re old, life is more risky. You’re expecting younger people to give their future to get two more months of life.
  • While COVID-19 is not the same as the flu, the numbers look very similar.
  • People rolled over for a lockdown based on no real solid science.
  • There’s a whole fallacy about the R value because it is dependent on the time you’re infected and no one knows what the time infected is, no one knows about hidden cases.

Source website: https://thefatemperor.com

Transcript: https://thefatemperor.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Ep78-Stanford-Professor-and-Nobel-Prize-Winner-Explains-this-Viral-Lockdown-Fully-2.pdf

Categories
News

Lockdown saved no lives and may have cost them, Nobel Prize winner believes – Professor Michael Levitt, The Telegraph

Lockdown caused more deaths than it saved, a Nobel laureate scientist said on Saturday, as he predicted the UK would emerge from Covid-19 within weeks.

Michael Levitt, a Stanford University professor who correctly predicted the initial trajectory of the pandemic, sent messages to Professor Neil Ferguson in March telling the influential government advisor he had over-estimated the potential death toll by “10 or 12 times”.

The Imperial College professor’s modelling, a major factor in the Government’s apparent abandoning of a so-called herd-immunity policy, was part of an unnecessary “panic virus” which spread among global political leaders, Prof Levitt now tells the Telegraph.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/23/lockdown-saved-no-lives-may-have-cost-nobel-prize-winner-believes/

Categories
Videos

COVID19 Never Grows Exponentially – Professor Michael Levitt

Part 1: Exponential Growth is Terrifying

This is my first podcast and they will improve. This is Part 1 and it describes how COVID may grow exponentially and how we flatten the growth curve.

Part 2: Curve Fitting for Understanding

This is Part 2. Fitting viral growth data with simple mathematical functions can give important insights into how epidemics will grow. Here we illustrate two commonly used growth curves, the Sigmoid Function and the Gompertz Function. While superficially similar, they are really very different.

Part 3: COVID19 Never Grows Exponentially

Part 3. The total case numbers in South Korea and New Zealand have exponential growth rates that decrease linearly on a log-scale. This is not ever exponential growth.

Categories
Opinion

Europe’s COVID19 Excess Deaths plateau at 15% more than 17/18 Flu – Professor Michael Levitt

Professor Michael Levitt, Stanford Prof. of Biophysics, Cambridge PhD and DSc, 2013 Chemistry Nobel Laureate (complex systems), says that Europe’s COVID19 Excess Deaths plateau at 153,006, 15% more than 17/18 Flu with same age range counts.

Categories
News

Q&A: Nobel laureate says COVID-19 curve could be naturally self-flattening – Dr. Michael Levitt, Stanford Daily

If Sweden stops at about 5,000 or 6,000 deaths, we will know that they’ve reached herd immunity, and we didn’t need to do any kind of lockdown. My own feeling is that it will probably stop because of herd immunity. COVID is serious, it’s at least a serious flu. But it’s not going to destroy humanity as people thought.

Categories
Opinion Videos

Nobel prize winning scientist Prof Michael Levitt: lockdown a “huge mistake” – UnHerd

With a purely statistical perspective, [Prof Michael Levitt] has been playing close attention to the Covid-19 pandemic since January, when most of us were not even aware of it. He first spoke out in early February, when through analysing the numbers of cases and deaths in Hubei province he predicted with remarkable accuracy that the epidemic in that province would top out at around 3,250 deaths.

Nobel prize-winning scientist: the Covid-19 epidemic was never exponential”