About 80% of patients have mild to moderate disease (including non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases), 13.8% have severe disease and 6.1% are critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). Individuals at highest risk for severe disease and death are people aged over 60 years of age and those with underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and cancer. Disease in children appears to be relatively rare and mild. About 2.4% of the total reported cases were individuals under 19 years of age. A very small proportion of those aged under 19 years have developed severe (2.5%) or critical disease (0.2%).
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[Nicola Oliver ] tells us that 15,969 people died of flu (in England) last year, although only 320 died in hospital, and 15,649 were apparently left to die without due medical attention at home. What she fails to note is that the 15,969 deaths were not recorded deaths but a projection derived from the Flumomo algorithm [2] for ‘flu attributable deaths’ based on all cause mortality [3], so it does not really get us anywhere (except that it is just kind of thing I am complaining about!)
Among outpatient health care personnel, N95 respirators vs medical masks as worn by participants in this trial resulted in no significant difference in the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza.
http://archive.today/2020.04.16-074055/https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31479137/
The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus […] On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf
Commentary from Off-Guardian:
Italian death toll figures could have been artificially inflated by up to 88%. If true, this would mean the total number of Italians who have actually died of Covid19 could be as low as ~700. Which would bring Italy, currently a statistical outlier in terms of Covid19 fatalities, well in line with the rest of the world.
Dr. Scott Jensen mentions the financial incentive to mark a patient with COVID-19.
Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate:
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
British epidemiologist Tom Jefferson tells the BMJ, “The sample [evidence from China] is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?”
Tom Jefferson, is an epidemiologist at the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) Group and writes for thebmjopinion.
School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30095-X/fulltext
Summary from BBC News:
- While school closures help during influenza outbreaks, the same may not apply to coronavirus
- Data from the Sars outbreak (in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore) suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic
- Recent modelling studies of Covid-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2%-4% of deaths, many fewer than other social distancing interventions
COVID-19 Models Misrepresent Reality
According to Ned Nikolov, Ph.D. a physical scientist in Colorado, USA, the COVID-19 models misrepresent reality.
Comparing #COVID19 Projections (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections) with reported data by Covid Tracking (https://covidtracking.com/data/) for Apr 5:
- Overestimation of hospitalizations: 8 times
- Overestimation of of ICU beds needed: 6.4 times
- Overestimation of ventilators needed: 40.5 times
These are the types of “projections” that drive the #COVID19 hysteria. The level of exaggeration by these so-called models is staggering. This is also what JUNK science looks like.
Dr. Fauci’s recommendations for lockdown are based on such faulty models. It’s truly a disgrace!
“I want you to remember these people died WITH the coronavirus and not FROM the coronavirus“
A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.
It seems that the British government’s assumption that COVID-19 would infect 80 percent of the population was borrowed from a 2015 flu pandemic planning report.
According Peter Hitches, the government has projected that 150,000 people may die as a result of the lockdowns. This is at around 10m20s in the talkRADIO interview.
Minnesota State Senator says Department of Health guidelines instruct doctors to list Covid19 as cause of death, without being tested.
CONCLUSIONS: People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.
COVID-19 is largely harmless to the general population under 65 with no pre-existing conditions, who are more likely to die in a road accident.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v2
Felix Scholkmann is a biophysicist at University Hospital Zurich, University of Zurich, Switzerland.
The crisis was over before lock-down
Andrew Mather, a mathematician and financier based in the UK, explains how the official data clearly showed that the COVID-19 crisis was over in the UK before the lock-down.