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Publications

RAPID RISK ASSESSMENT Outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) – European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control

About 80% of patients have mild to moderate disease (including non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases), 13.8% have severe disease and 6.1% are critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). Individuals at highest risk for severe disease and death are people aged over 60 years of age and those with underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and cancer. Disease in children appears to be relatively rare and mild. About 2.4% of the total reported cases were individuals under 19 years of age. A very small proportion of those aged under 19 years have developed severe (2.5%) or critical disease (0.2%).

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-outbreak-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-increase-transmission-globally-COVID-19.pdf

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Publications

Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period – Sicence Magazine

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793

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Opinion Publications

Excess deaths: government commissions review – BMJ

[Nicola Oliver ] tells us that 15,969 people died of flu (in England) last year, although only 320 died in hospital, and 15,649 were apparently left to die without due medical attention at home. What she fails to note is that the 15,969 deaths were not recorded deaths but a projection derived from the Flumomo algorithm [2] for ‘flu attributable deaths’ based on all cause mortality [3], so it does not really get us anywhere (except that it is just kind of thing I am complaining about!)

https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rapid-responses

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Publications

N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Personnel: A Randomized Clinical Trial – PubMed

Among outpatient health care personnel, N95 respirators vs medical masks as worn by participants in this trial resulted in no significant difference in the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

http://archive.today/2020.04.16-074055/https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31479137/

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Publications

Characteristics of COVID-19 patients dying in Italy Report based on available data on March 20th, 2020 – Professor Walter Ricciardi, ISS

The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus […] On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf

Commentary from Off-Guardian:

Italian death toll figures could have been artificially inflated by up to 88%. If true, this would mean the total number of Italians who have actually died of Covid19 could be as low as ~700. Which would bring Italy, currently a statistical outlier in terms of Covid19 fatalities, well in line with the rest of the world.

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News Videos

The Ridiculous CDC Guidlines – Dr Scott Jensen

Dr. Scott Jensen mentions the financial incentive to mark a patient with COVID-19.

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News

British epidemiologist: why are we locking down if China results are representative?

Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate:

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

British epidemiologist Tom Jefferson tells the BMJ, “The sample [evidence from China] is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?”

Tom Jefferson, is an epidemiologist at the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) Group and writes for thebmjopinion.

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News Publications

UCL: closing schools does not help control COVID-19 epidemic

School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30095-X/fulltext

Summary from BBC News:

  • While school closures help during influenza outbreaks, the same may not apply to coronavirus
  • Data from the Sars outbreak (in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore) suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic
  • Recent modelling studies of Covid-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2%-4% of deaths, many fewer than other social distancing interventions
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News Publications

COVID-19 Models Misrepresent Reality

According to Ned Nikolov, Ph.D. a physical scientist in Colorado, USA, the COVID-19 models misrepresent reality.

Comparing #COVID19 Projections (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections) with reported data by Covid Tracking (https://covidtracking.com/data/) for Apr 5:

  • Overestimation of hospitalizations: 8 times
  • Overestimation of of ICU beds needed: 6.4 times
  • Overestimation of ventilators needed: 40.5 times

These are the types of “projections” that drive the #COVID19 hysteria. The level of exaggeration by these so-called models is staggering. This is also what JUNK science looks like.
Dr. Fauci’s recommendations for lockdown are based on such faulty models. It’s truly a disgrace!

Ned Nikolov: verestimation of hospitalizations
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Videos

President of the Italian Civil Protection Service reports on Italy’s fatality figures

I want you to remember these people died WITH the coronavirus and not FROM the coronavirus

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Opinion

Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days – The Times of Israel

A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/

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News

COVID antibody test in German town shows 15 percent infection rate – The Spectator

It seems that the British government’s assumption that COVID-19 would infect 80 percent of the population was borrowed from a 2015 flu pandemic planning report.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-antibody-test-in-german-town-shows-15-per-cent-infection-rate-0-4pc-death-rate

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News Videos

150,000 may die as a result of the shutdown – Peter Hitchens, talkRADIO

According Peter Hitches, the government has projected that 150,000 people may die as a result of the lockdowns. This is at around 10m20s in the talkRADIO interview.

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News Videos

Dr Scott Jensen Reveals “Ridiculous” Covid19 Guidance – Off-Guardian

Minnesota State Senator says Department of Health guidelines instruct doctors to list Covid19 as cause of death, without being tested.

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Publications

Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters – medRxiv

 CONCLUSIONS: People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.

COVID-19 is largely harmless to the general population under 65 with no pre-existing conditions, who are more likely to die in a road accident.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v2

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Publications

The rate of positive tests in the US, France, Germany and Switzerland is not increasing exponentially

The rate of positive tests in the US, France, Germany and Switzerland is not increasing exponentially.

Felix Scholkmann is a biophysicist at University Hospital Zurich, University of Zurich, Switzerland.

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News Videos

Is social distancing working? – Professor Knut Wittkoski

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News

Mortality rates are rising in the UK – and everyone is ignoring it – New Statesman

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/07/mortality-rates-are-rising-uk-and-everyone-ignoring-it

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News

No, coronavirus is not “20x deadlier” than the flu – Off-Guardian

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Videos

The crisis was over before lock-down

Andrew Mather, a mathematician and financier based in the UK, explains how the official data clearly showed that the COVID-19 crisis was over in the UK before the lock-down.