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Publications

Estimating the extent of asymptomatic COVID-19 and its potential for community transmission: systematic review and meta-analysis – medRxiv

Estimates of asymptomatic rate and transmission rate are vital parameters for modelling studies. Our estimates of the proportion of asymptomatic cases and their transmission rates suggest that asymptomatic spread is unlikely to be a major driver of clusters or community transmission of infection, but the extent for pre-symptomatic and minor symptomatic transmission remains unknown. Other unknowns include whether there is a difference in age (particularly children vs adults), sex and underlying comorbidities that differentiate asymptomatic from pre-symptomatic cases; development of long-term immunity; and whether asymptomatic cases take longer to develop active disease or remain silent.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.10.20097543v2.full

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News

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is ‘very rare,’ WHO says – CNBC

Coronavirus patients without symptoms aren’t driving the spread of the virus, World Health Organization officials said Monday, casting doubt on concerns by some researchers that the disease could be difficult to contain due to asymptomatic infections. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

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News

Why lockdown could cost more lives than it saves – The Telegraph

On March 25, just a day after Britain shut down, economist Professor Philip Thomas, of Bristol University, made a grim prediction.

If the country remained in lockdown for longer than two months, he warned, any lives saved would be wiped out by those lost from the impact of the inevitable recession.

Britain hit that timeline more than a fortnight ago, but restrictions largely remain in place and there is growing alarm among economists that the cure has become far deadlier than the disease.

Prof Thomas now estimates that 150,000 people could die from Covid-19 over five years under the intermittent lockdown conditions necessary to keep infection rates, or the reproduction ‘R’ number, below one if a vaccine is not found.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/07/lockdown-restrictions-not-simple-lives-versus-livelihoods/

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News

UK coronavirus victims have lain undetected at home for two weeks – The Guardian

People have died at home alone of Covid-19 during the pandemic and not been found for up to two weeks, doctors who have investigated such deaths have said.

They have only been discovered after a relative, friend or neighbour raised the alarm and have in many cases gone undetected for so long that their body has started to decompose.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/07/uk-coronavirus-victims-have-lain-undetected-at-home-for-two-weeks

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News

One in ten Brits may have had coronavirus – The Spectator

All through the Covid-19 pandemic we have been hampered by a lack of data on just how many people have had the disease. Given that several studies have indicated that as many as 80 per cent of people who are infected show no symptoms whatsoever, it is extremely difficult to estimate this crucial figure – which determines the mortality rate of Covid-19 and also how far away we might be from achieving a position of herd immunity.

Today, however, comes some very substantial data. The Medical Research Council’s Biostatistics Unit has published estimates of infections derived from serological studies on samples collected from the NHS Blood Transfusion Service. 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/one-in-ten-brits-may-have-had-coronavirus

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Opinion

Has the British scientific establishment made its biggest error in history? – The Telegraph

The scientific establishment in this country has had a bad war. Its mistakes have probably made the Covid-19 epidemic, as well as the economic downturn, worse. Britain entered the pandemic late, with lots of warning, so we should have done better than other countries. Instead we are one of the worst affected in Europe and one of the last to begin to recover.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/06/has-british-scientific-establishment-made-biggest-error-history/

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Opinion

The architects of lockdown must not be allowed to rewrite history – The Telegraph

Britain’s lockdown nightmare may be far from over, but an attempt to rewrite the history of the country’s greatest political blunder has already begun. With the UK now past the peak, the lack of evidence that lockdown served any useful purpose is glaring. And crucially, thanks to a growing abundance of raw data – from deaths and hospital admissions, to Covid-related 111 calls and mobile tracking intelligence –we now have the power to piece together what Britain’s lockdown achieved (or didn’t) in hideous technicolour.

Getting at the truth will be an uphill struggle, however: Downing Street has shown no appetite whatsoever for sifting through the evidence, even though it could inform (or, let’s face it, rip apart) its uniquely odd approach to easing lockdown. We must also beware the shape-shifting, scientific architects of the stay-at-home order; as criticism grows, are they attempting to dress their reconstructed reality in the language of scientific pedantry?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/04/architects-lockdown-must-not-allowed-rewrite-history/

Categories
Opinion

Tell MPs ‘not in my name’ if you are horrified by this social experiment – The Telegraph

Are we going to stand for the pathological coercion of our nation – or finally start organising against it?

Many people who lived through the last war – or whose parents have vivid recollections of it – will tell you that they are infuriated by any suggestion that our present emergency is anywhere near comparable to that experience. We are not descending into bomb shelters at night, emerging in the morning possibly to find our homes and family possessions destroyed. The deprivations that we are enduring today are relatively trivial: locked in, as most of us are, with our myriad electronic devices and forms of entertainment which would have seemed magical to that stoical population gathered around the wireless every evening to listen to whatever the government permitted the BBC to offer.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/06/tell-mps-not-name-horrified-social-experiment/

Categories
News

The Tiny Data Firm at the Center of the Hydroxychloroquine Storm – Bloomberg

The World Health Organization had suspended clinical trial programs using hydroxychloroquine following the initial report, as did the U.K. and France. The Lancet’s peer-reviewed study, published on May 22, claimed to have analyzed Surgisphere data collected from almost 96,000 Covid-19 patients across the globe.

But in the days after publication, concerns over the underlying data bubbled up. Questions arose over how Surgisphere, a little-known company that claims to have 11 employees, could have reached agreements on sharing sensitive patient information with some 1,200 hospitals around the world, much less received and processed the data so quickly.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/the-tiny-data-firm-at-the-center-of-the-hydroxychloroquine-storm

Categories
News

Dying of neglect: the other Covid care home scandal – The Spectator

It is remarkable how many deaths during this pandemic have occurred in care homes. According to the Office for National Statistics, nearly 50,000 care home deaths were registered in the 11 weeks up to 22 May in England and Wales — 25,000 more than you would expect at this time of the year. Two out of five care homes in England have had a coronavirus outbreak; in the north-east, it’s half.

Not all these deaths, however, have been attributed to Covid-19. Even when death certificates do mention it, it is not always clear that it is the disease that was the ultimate cause of death. The data refers to people who died with Covid-19 present in their bodies, whether or not it was the direct cause. This raises questions about whether there’s another reason for many of these deaths which has gone largely unnoticed while attention has been focused on Covid-19. This is not just a British phenomenon, but one seen across Europe.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/dying-of-neglect-the-other-covid-care-home-scandal

Categories
Opinion

Lockdown vs BLM protests compared

The anti-lockdown protests and BLM protests in London were only days apart yet the police and media handled them in very different ways. The double-standards are clearly displayed here.

Lockdown protests

BLM protests


News coverage

Independent

“Lizzie Dearden meets the conspiracy theorists happy to creak the law to oppose what they see as the ‘tyranny’ of coronavirus restrictions”

16 May 2020

“Black Lives Matter: All the peaceful protests happening in the UK this week.”

4 June 2020


The Sun

“COVIDIOTS – Scuffles as dozens of protesters including Jeremy Corbyn’s brother whinge about coronavirus lockdown in Hyde Park”

16 May 2020

“London Protest – Justice for Black Lives protest: What time is the Parliament Square demo on June 6?”

6 June 2020


The Express

“London lockdown protest: Huge crowd gathers in Hyde Park for idiotic coronavirus stunt”

16 May 2020

“London Protest: Black Lives Matter demonstration begins – organisers promise biggest ever”

3 June 2020

Images circulating on Twitter unless otherwise credited. Please contact us to claim credit for an image.

Categories
Opinion

Science, doubt and the ‘second wave’ of Covid – Dr. John Lee, The Spectator

One of the key things about science – obvious to its practitioners, but often obscure to outsiders – is that it is fuelled by doubt, not certainty. When the ‘facts’ change (as they often do), and when original assumptions are qualified or overturned, then any scientist worth their salt re-examines and, if necessary, alters their conclusions. The presence of cross-reactive helper cells in maybe half the population means that ideas about a possible second wave must be rewritten. This finding must make a second wave less likely, probably much less likely. And the fact that there has been no ‘second wave’ (as opposed to isolated outbreaks) anywhere where lockdown has been released also fits this hypothesis. It may well also explain why the first wave didn’t infect much higher proportions of the population.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/science-doubt-and-the-second-wave-of-covid

Categories
News

Pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca reveals it is ALREADY manufacturing Oxford University’s experimental vaccine in India, the UK and Europe amid plans to distribute 2BILLION doses as early as September if it works – Daily Mail

A British pharmaceutical giant is already manufacturing an unproven coronavirus vaccine as it hopes to dish out hundreds of millions of doses by September.

The Cambridge-based firm expects to have distributed hundreds of millions of doses of the vaccine this year and at least 2billion by mid-2021.

It has signed deals to produce 400million doses for the US and 100million for the UK if it is successful in human trials. Results are expected in August.

Britain has agreed to pay for the doses ‘as early as possible’ – with ministers hoping for a third of those to be ready for September if proven effective.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8391769/AstraZeneca-manufacturing-Covid-vaccine-three-countries.html

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Videos

Professor Dolores Cahill on The James Delingpole Channel

Note: The video has been removed from Vimeo but has been archived on BitChute (see embedded below highlights).

James talks with Professor Dolores Cahill, a world renowned immunologist who has advised the Irish government and the EU.

  • We should end the lockdown. Quarantining healthy people was a huge mistake, should never have been done and should never happen again.
  • All the available information tells us there’s no longer any basis for the lockdowns. The economic harm and resulting health effects could be five times higher than those caused by the virus. The adverse health implications of poverty is well-known and has lots of supporting data.
  • The immunology community knew in January and February that there was nothing very special about COVID-19.
  • There are lots of clinical trials showing the usefulness of vitamins C, D and Zinc for preventing symptoms of corona-type viruses.
  • It is also very well established that hydroxychloroquine, which is a very safe drug, can be used as a treatment.
  • There was no need to ramp up the hospital care system because there were established methods for prevention and treatment.
  • It was known that the virus would circulate the world in a month. Professor Cahill was surprised at the lockdown because the ‘virus was gone.’ There is clearly enough data for this.
  • COVID-19 (also known as SARS-CoV-2) is about 80% the same as SARS-CoV-1 in 2003. These types of viruses last about 6 weeks in each location before naturally ‘dying off’ as people become exposed and then developing immunity.
  • 80 out of 100 people would have developed antibodies within 10-11 days and become immune for life without experiencing symptoms.
  • Although COVID-19 is a novel virus, it can be ‘recognized’ by the immune system of anyone who had already been exposed to SARS-CoV-1. This is because of COVID-19’s 80% similarity to the earlier 2003 virus.
  • With these types of viruses, you will be negative for the PCR test (which tests for the presence of the virus) after recovery but you will test positive for the antibodies.
  • You don’t need the lockdown if you boost your immune system. in fact, the lockdown made matters worse by depressing people’s immune system. Sunshine, interacting with people, shaking hands–all these help to boost your immune system.
  • Elderly people should be taking vitamin C, D and Zinc to protect their immune systems. People with underlying conditions, or those who develop symptoms, should contact their doctor to consider prescribing off-label hydroxychloroquine.
  • Symptoms: flu-like for the first five days. If it gets worse and you develop a cough, that’s when you need to ring your doctor for treatment. Treatment includes hydroxychloroquine for 3-5 days, with Zinc and AZT antibiotic. This is an established protocol that has been used in many clinical trials in 2020.
  • There was some reason to be scared of COVID-19 during the very early stages (around January) because because we didn’t know anything about it. However, the media and WHO was fearmongering when they used Wuhan as an example of what would happen everywhere.
  • From February onward, the immunology community recognized that COVID-19 is the same as a normal virus in most parts of the world. There was something different about Wuhan, Bergamo and New York but t here was no reason to lockdown the rest of the world.
  • Vaccines have their place and can be safe. However, studies show that animal and human subjects that were given a type of influenza vaccine later reacted badly when they encountered a coronavirus ‘in the wild’. The reaction caused a cytokine storm that either killed the subject or made the subject very ill. The reaction between different types of vaccinated and wild viruses is called viral interference.
  • People in Wuhan and Bergamo were given a certain type of influenza vaccine. It became apparent around April-May that the high death rates in both cities could be due to viral interference from the administered influenza vaccine.
  • It has not been possible to make a safe and effective vaccine for the SARS-CoV-1 in 2003. If we have not been able to make a vaccine for this coronavirus, we should not expect a safe vaccine for COVID-19 any time soon. A vaccine developed for COVID-19 would be a complete experiment on those who take it.
  • Vaccines containing alluminium, Thimerodal or mercury are intrinsically unsafe.
  • The global death rate for COVID-19 is around the same as a bad influenza. Outside of Wuhan, Bergamo and New York, the death rate appears to be less than the normal flu.
  • Current data shows that the real death rate for COVID-19 is 20 or 30 times less than the initial estimates from the WHO. We now know the death rate is about one in a thousand for the vulnerable and one in five thousand for the healthy. In the under 70s age range, this is lower than the average flu.
  • It was well-known in February that there was no need for the lockdowns.
  • There have been no cases of transmission from children.
  • If we were to end the lockdown, we would need 10 days to prepare. This is because people have not been out and exposed to sunlight. Preparation include taking vitamins C, D and Zinc; getting fresh air; avoiding stress; and making sure doctors have hydroxychloroquine.
  • It is almost as if the current advice is geared to making sure people get sick in order to support more lockdowns.
  • There will be no second spike if people take the above precautions to strengthen their immune system.
  • A recent study shows that people who continued working were healthy. Engaging with other keeps you healthy by strengthening the immune system.
  • There hasn’t been an open debate in any country about the harm versus benefits of the lockdown. This may be a big reason for why the lockdowns are continuing.
  • Dr. Rashid A. Buttar and Dr. Judy Mikovits are trying to open the debate about prevention and treatments but their voices are being censored.
  • The use of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment has been politicized.
  • Evidence is being cherry-picked in order reach a predetermined goal: a money-making vaccine. The existing prevention and treatment methods don’t make money for big-pharma.
  • Masks and social distancing is appropriate for something like ebola but not for coronaviruses.
  • We will build up herd immunity within about two weeks.
  • We know how COVID-19 is transmitted because it belongs to the family of coronaviruses. It is not transmitted through the air. This has been proven because groups of people in encloses spaces (for example, plane-loads of fruit-pickers) did not all come down with the sickness.
  • The two meter rule is unnecessary.
  • There was enough information from many sources for the government and their advisors to know that all these measures are wrong. There should be legal implications for those who advocate continued lockdown. Hundreds of unnecessary deaths should be grounds for a legal tribunal.
  • There is a high risk of a death spike after lockdown due to other causes, such as cancers, that will attributed to COVID-19. This will be used to support more lockdowns.
  • The politicians, broadcasters, newspaper editors, ministers for health–everyone complicit in censoring and withholding information from the public about the true nature of COVID-19 needs to be held personally liable for the deaths caused.

Categories
News

‘The costs are too high’: the scientist who wants lockdown lifted faster – The Guardian

“It’s becoming clear that a lot of people have been exposed to the virus and that the death rate in people under 65 is not something you would lock down the economy for,” she says. “We can’t just think about those who are vulnerable to the disease. We have to think about those who are vulnerable to lockdown too. The costs of lockdown are too high at this point.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/the-costs-are-too-high-the-scientist-who-wants-lockdown-lifted-faster-sunetra-gupta

Categories
Opinion

Best-selling author and political commentator The coronavirus lockdown may have been unnecessary – The Express

THERE IS a growing body of evidence which, if it is ever proved true and it may well be when our present nightmare is over, would leave the Government’s policy over the past 20 months in discredited tatters.

Trying to predict the future is the oldest delusion known to Man. It has never worked, save exceptionally by a fluke. This time we were told “Follow the science”.

https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/frederick-forsyth/1291651/coronavirus-lockdown-end-UK-death-toll-latest

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News

Are we heading into another Depression? – The Financial Times

The Covid-19 lockdowns have led to the largest rises in unemployment since the 1930s. The Financial Times asked leading economists and market analysts what to expect and what might be done to avert turmoil

https://www.ft.com/content/f544bda2-a3fd-11ea-81ac-4854aed294e5

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News

Coronavirus infections in England and Wales hit peak days before lockdown, study finds – The Telegraph

Modelling by Professor Simon Wood, of the school of mathematics at the University of Bristol, shows that the majority of people who died at the peak would have been infected roughly five days before the lockdown was introduced.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/04/coronavirus-infections-england-wales-hit-peak-days-lockdown/

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Publications

The natural history and transmission potential of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection – IDSA

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection is common and can be detected by analysis of saliva or NTS. NTS viral loads fall faster in asymptomatic individuals, but they appear able to transmit the virus to others.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa711/5851471

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Publications

UK Covid-19 infection peak may have fallen before lockdown, new analysis shows – Professor Simon Wood, University of Bristol

By simply separating out weekly reporting variability, the long-term death rate profile becomes clear, and its peak can be located with confidence. Using the distribution of times from disease onset to death, it is possible to extend the model to infer the time course of fatal infections required to produce the later deaths. Because of the wide variability in onset to death times, a quite sharply peaked infection curve produces a death curve that declines only slowly. The inferred infection curve peaks a few days before lockdown, with fatal infections now likely to be occurring at a much-reduced rate.

Diagram shows the inferred time course of the number of fatal infections, where day 0 is March 13th. The continuous curve is the median estimate. The dashed curves delimit 80% and 95% credible intervals. The vertical grey line shows day of lock down. The overlaid scaled bar chart summarizes the probability distribution for the day of the infection peak.

http://bristol.ac.uk/maths/news/2020/peak-lockdown.html