Categories
Opinion

We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April – Wall Street Journal

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

…explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Categories
News

Neil Ferguson interview: China changed what was possible – UnHerd

To those people who, still now, object to lockdowns on civil liberties principles, this will be a chilling reminder of the centrality of the authoritarian Chinese model in influencing global policy in this historic year.

Categories
Publications

Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK

Randomised control trial study showing safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccine has clear conflicts of interest.

Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine AZD1222

https://salud.edomex.gob.mx/cevece/documentos/covid/Safety%20and%20efficacy%20of%20the%20ChAdOx1%20nCoV-19%20vaccine%20AZD1222.pdf