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Publications

Sentinel surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater anticipates the occurrence of COVID-19 cases – medRxiv

SARS-CoV-2 was detected in Barcelona sewage long before the declaration of the first COVID-19 case, indicating that the infection was present in the population before the first imported case was reported. Sentinel surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater would enable adoption of immediate measures in the event of future COVID-19 waves.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v1

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Publications

Estimating the extent of asymptomatic COVID-19 and its potential for community transmission: systematic review and meta-analysis – medRxiv

Estimates of asymptomatic rate and transmission rate are vital parameters for modelling studies. Our estimates of the proportion of asymptomatic cases and their transmission rates suggest that asymptomatic spread is unlikely to be a major driver of clusters or community transmission of infection, but the extent for pre-symptomatic and minor symptomatic transmission remains unknown. Other unknowns include whether there is a difference in age (particularly children vs adults), sex and underlying comorbidities that differentiate asymptomatic from pre-symptomatic cases; development of long-term immunity; and whether asymptomatic cases take longer to develop active disease or remain silent.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.10.20097543v2.full

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News

Sweden has not see the predicted exponential rise in Covid-19 cases, and parts of Europe are beginning to follow its approach – News Letter

There has been a repeated claim in media and on social media that death rates from the worldwide Covid-19 outbreak are spiking in Sweden, a country that has not implemented the measures termed ‘lockdown’.

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/sweden-has-not-see-predicted-exponential-rise-covid-19-cases-and-parts-europe-are-beginning-follow-its-approach-2545486

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News

Coronavirus Case Counts Are Meaningless – US statistician Nate Silver

Nate Silver, an American statistician, tells us why coronavirus case counts are meaningless.

*Unless you know something about testing. And even then, it gets complicated.

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Publications

Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate – The BMJ

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

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News

Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Is an ‘Almost Meaningless’ Metric – Bloomberg / Yahoo Finance

“The numbers are almost meaningless,” says Steve Goodman, a professor of epidemiology at Stanford University. There’s a huge reservoir of people who have mild cases, and would not likely seek testing, he says. The rate of increase in positive results reflect a mixed-up combination of increased testing rates and spread of the virus.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-almost-meaningless-123550415.html

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Publications

Diamond Princess 48% test-positive cases remained completely symptom-free – National Institute of Infectious Diseases Japan

https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9407-covid-dp-fe-01.html